# Chapter 16 (Normal) Hierarchical Models Without Predictors

In Chapter 16 we’ll build our first hierarchical models upon the foundations established in Chapter 15.
We’ll start simply, by assuming that we have some response variable \(Y\), but no predictors \(X\).
Consider the following data story.
The Spotify music streaming platform provides listeners access to more than 50 million songs.
Of course, some songs are more popular than others.
Let \(Y\) be a song’s Spotify popularity rating on a 0-100 scale.
In general, the more recent plays that a song has on the platform, the higher its popularity rating.
Thus the popularity rating *doesn’t* necessarily measure a song’s overall quality, long-term popularity, or popularity beyond the Spotify audience.
And though it will be tough to resist questioning exactly which song features \(X\) can help us *predict* ratings, we’ll focus on understanding \(Y\) alone.
Specifically, we’d like to better understand:

- What’s the typical popularity of a Spotify song?
- To what extent does popularity vary from artist to artist?
- Within any single artist, how much might popularity vary from song to song?

Other than a *vague* sense that the average popularity rating is around 50, we don’t have any strong prior understanding about these dynamics, thus will be utilizing weakly informative priors throughout our Spotify analysis.
With that, let’s dig into the data.
The `spotify`

data in the **bayesrules** package is a subset of data analyzed by Kaylin Pavlik (2019) and distributed through the **#TidyTuesday** project (R for Data Science 2020d).
It includes information on 350 songs on Spotify.^{67}

```
# Load packages
library(bayesrules)
library(tidyverse)
library(rstanarm)
library(bayesplot)
library(tidybayes)
library(broom.mixed)
library(forcats)
# Load data
data(spotify)
```

Here we select only the few variables that are important to our analysis, and reorder the `artist`

levels according to their mean song popularity using `fct_reorder()`

in the **forcats** package (Wickham 2021):

```
<- spotify %>%
spotify select(artist, title, popularity) %>%
mutate(artist = fct_reorder(artist, popularity, .fun = 'mean'))
```

You’re encouraged to view the resulting `spotify`

data in full.
But even just a few snippets reveal a *hierarchical* or *grouped* data structure:

```
# First few rows
head(spotify, 3)
# A tibble: 3 x 3
artist title popularity<fct> <chr> <dbl>
1 Alok On & On 79
2 Alok All The Lies 56
3 Alok Hear Me Now 75
# Number of songs
nrow(spotify)
1] 350
[
# Number of artists
nlevels(spotify$artist)
1] 44 [
```

Specifically, our total sample of 350 songs is comprised of multiple songs for each of 44 artists who were, in turn, sampled from the population of all artists that have songs on Spotify (Figure 16.1).

The `artist_means`

data frame summarizes the number of songs observed on each artist along with the mean popularity of these songs.
Shown below are the two artists with the lowest and highest mean popularity ratings.
Keeping in mind that we’ve eliminated from our analysis the nearly 10% of Spotify songs which have a popularity rating of 0, each artist in our sample should be seen as a relative success story.

```
<- spotify %>%
artist_means group_by(artist) %>%
summarize(count = n(), popularity = mean(popularity))
%>%
artist_means slice(1:2, 43:44)
# A tibble: 4 x 3
artist count popularity<fct> <int> <dbl>
1 Mia X 4 13.2
2 Chris Goldarg 10 16.4
3 Lil Skies 3 79.3
4 Camilo 9 81
```

Recalling Chapter 15, we will consider three different approaches to analyzing this Spotify `popularity`

data:

**complete pooling**

*Ignore*artists and lump all songs together (Figure 15.5).**no pooling**

*Separately*analyze each artist and assume that one artist’s data doesn’t contain valuable information about another artist (Figure 15.6).**partial pooling (via hierarchical models)**

Acknowledge the grouping structure, thus that even though artists differ in popularity, they might share valuable information about each other*and*about the broader population of artists (Figure 16.1).

As you might suspect, the first two approaches oversimplify the analysis. The good thing about trying them out is that it will remind us why we should care about hierarchical models in the first place.

*Build*a hierarchical model of variable \(Y\) with*no*predictors \(X\);*Simulate*and analyze this hierarchical model using**rstanarm**;- Utilize hierarchical models for
*predicting*\(Y\).

To focus on the big picture, we keep this first exploration of hierarchical models to the *Normal* setting, a special case of the broader generalized linear hierarchical models we’ll study in Chapter 18.

As our Bayesian modeling toolkit expands, so must our R tools and syntax.
Be patient with yourself here – as you see more examples throughout this unit, the *patterns* in the syntax will become more familiar.

## 16.1 Complete pooled model

Carefully analyzing group structured data requires some new notation.
In general, we’ll use \(i\) and \(j\) subscripts to track two pieces of information about each song in our sample: \(j\) indicates a song’s *artist* and \(i\) indicates the specific *song* within each artist.
To begin, let \(n_j\) denote the number of songs we have for artist \(j\) where \(j \in \{1,2,\ldots,44\}\).
For example, the first two artists have \(n_1 = 4\) and \(n_2 = 10\) songs, respectively:

```
head(artist_means, 2)
# A tibble: 2 x 3
artist count popularity<fct> <int> <dbl>
1 Mia X 4 13.2
2 Chris Goldarg 10 16.4
```

Further, the number of songs per artist runs as low as 2 and as high as 40:

```
%>%
artist_means summarize(min(count), max(count))
# A tibble: 1 x 2
`min(count)` `max(count)`
<int> <int>
1 2 40
```

Summing the number of songs \(n_j\) across *all* artists produces our *total* sample size \(n\):

\[n = \sum_{j=1}^{44} n_j = n_1 + n_2 + \cdots + n_{44} = 350 \; .\]

Beyond the artists are the songs themselves.
To distinguish between songs, we will let \(Y_{ij}\) (or \(Y_{i,j}\)) represent the \(i\)th song for artist \(j\) where \(i \in \{1,2,\ldots,n_j\}\) and \(j \in \{1,2, \ldots, 44\}\).
Thus we can think of our sample of 350 total songs as the *collection* of our smaller samples on each of 44 artists:

\[Y := \left((Y_{11}, Y_{21}, \ldots, Y_{n_1,1}), (Y_{12}, Y_{22}, \ldots, Y_{n_2,2}), \ldots, (Y_{1,44}, Y_{2,44}, \ldots, Y_{n_{44},44})\right) \; .\]

As a first approach to analyzing this data, we’ll implement a **complete pooled model** of song popularity which *ignores* the data’s grouped structure, lumping all songs together in one sample.
A density plot of this pool illustrates that there’s quite a bit of variability in popularity from song to song, with ratings ranging from roughly 10 to 95.

```
ggplot(spotify, aes(x = popularity)) +
geom_density()
```

Though these ratings appear somewhat left skewed, we’ll make one more simplification in our complete pooling analysis by assuming Normality.
Specifically, we’ll utilize the following **Normal-Normal complete pooled model** with a prior for \(\mu\) that reflects our weak understanding that the average popularity rating is around 50 and, independently, a weakly informative prior for \(\sigma\).
These prior specifications can be confirmed using `prior_summary()`

.

\[\begin{equation} \begin{split} Y_{ij} | \mu, \sigma & \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2) \\ \mu & \sim N(50, 52^2) \\ \sigma & \sim \text{Exp}(0.048) \\ \end{split} \tag{16.1} \end{equation}\]

Though we saw similar models in Chapters 5 and 9, it’s important to review the meaning of parameters \(\mu\) and \(\sigma\) before shaking things up.
Since \(\mu\) and \(\sigma\) are shared by *every* song \(Y_{ij}\), we can think of them as **global parameters** which do not vary by artist \(j\).
Across *all* songs across *all* artists in the population:

- \(\mu\) = global mean popularity; and
- \(\sigma\) = global standard deviation in popularity from song to song.

To simulate the corresponding posterior, note that the complete pooled model (16.1) is a simple Normal regression model in disguise.
Specifically, if we substitute notation \(\beta_0\) for global mean \(\mu\), (16.1) is an **intercept only regression model** with no predictors \(X\).
With this in mind, we can simulate the complete pooled model using `stan_glm()`

with the formula `popularity ~ 1`

where the `1`

specifies an “intercept only” term:

```
<- stan_glm(
spotify_complete_pooled ~ 1,
popularity data = spotify, family = gaussian,
prior_intercept = normal(50, 2.5, autoscale = TRUE),
prior_aux = exponential(1, autoscale = TRUE),
chains = 4, iter = 5000*2, seed = 84735)
# Get prior specifications
prior_summary(spotify_complete_pooled)
```

The posterior summaries below suggest that Spotify songs have a typical popularity rating, \(\mu\), around 58.39 points with a relatively large standard deviation from song to song, \(\sigma\), around 20.67 points.

```
<- tidy(spotify_complete_pooled,
complete_summary effects = c("fixed", "aux"),
conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.80)
complete_summary
term estimate std.error conf.low conf.high1 (Intercept) 58.39 1.0959 57.00 59.81
2 sigma 20.67 0.7761 19.69 21.70
3 mean_PPD 58.40 1.5675 56.38 60.41
```

In light of these results, complete the quiz below.^{68}

Suppose the following three artists each release a new song on Spotify:

- Mia X, the artist with the lowest mean popularity in our sample (13).
- Beyoncé, an artist with nearly the highest mean popularity in our sample (70).
- Mohsen Beats, a musical group that we
*didn’t*observe.

Using the complete pooled model, what would be the approximate posterior predictive mean of each song’s popularity?

Your intuition might have reasonably suggested that the predicted popularity for these three artists should be *different* – our current data suggests that Beyoncé’s song will be more popular than Mia X’s.
Yet, recall that by lumping all songs together, our complete pooled model *ignores* any artist-specific information.
As a result, the posterior predicted popularity of any new song will be the *same* for every artist, those that are in our sample (Beyoncé and Mia X) and those that are not (Mohsen Beats).
Further, the shared posterior predictive mean popularity will be roughly equivalent to the posterior expected value of the global mean, \(E(\mu|y)\) \(\approx\) 58.39.
Plotting the posterior predictive popularity models (light blue) alongside the observed *mean* popularity levels (dark dots) for all 44 sampled artists illustrates the unfortunate consequences of this oversimplification – it treats all artists the same even though we know they’re not.

```
set.seed(84735)
<- posterior_predict(spotify_complete_pooled,
predictions_complete newdata = artist_means)
ppc_intervals(artist_means$popularity, yrep = predictions_complete,
prob_outer = 0.80) +
::scale_x_continuous(labels = artist_means$artist,
ggplot2breaks = 1:nrow(artist_means)) +
xaxis_text(angle = 90, hjust = 1)
```

## 16.2 No pooled model

The complete pooled model ignored the grouped structure of our Spotify data – we have 44 unique artists in our sample and multiple songs per each.
Next, consider a no pooled model which swings the opposite direction, separately analyzing the popularity rating of each individual artist.
Figure 16.4 displays density plots of song popularity for each artist.
The punchline in this mess of lines is this: the *typical* popularity and *variability* in popularity differ by artist.
Whereas some artists’ songs tend to have popularity levels below 25, others’ tend to have popularity levels higher than 75.
Further, for some artists, the popularity from song to song is very *consistent*, or less variable.
For others, song popularity falls all over the map – some of their songs are wildly popular and others not so much.

```
ggplot(spotify, aes(x = popularity, group = artist)) +
geom_density()
```

Instead of assuming a shared *global* mean popularity level, the no pooled model recognizes that artist popularity differs by incorporating **group-specific parameters** \(\mu_j\) which vary by artist.
Specifically, **within** each artist \(j\), we assume that the popularity of songs \(i\) are *Normally* distributed around some mean \(\mu_j\) with standard deviation \(\sigma\):

\[\begin{equation} Y_{ij} | \mu_j, \sigma \sim N(\mu_j, \sigma^2) \tag{16.2} \end{equation}\]

Thus

- \(\mu_j\) = mean song popularity for artist \(j\); and
- \(\sigma\) = the standard deviation in popularity from song to song within each artist.

Figure 16.5 illustrates these parameters and the underlying model assumptions for just five of our 44 sampled artists.
First, our Normal data model (16.2) assumes that the *mean* popularity \(\mu_j\) varies between different artists \(j\), i.e. some artists’ songs tend to be more popular than others’.
In contrast, it assumes that the *variability* in popularity from song to song \(\sigma\) is the *same* for each artist, hence its lack of a \(j\) subscript.
Though Figure 16.4 might bring the assumptions of Normality and equal variability into question, with such small sample sizes per artist, we can’t put too much stock into the potential noise.
The current simplifying assumptions are a reasonable place to start.

The notation of the no pooled data structure (16.2) also clarifies some features of our no pooling approach:

- Every song \(i\) by the same artist \(j\), \(Y_{ij}\), shares mean parameter \(\mu_j\).
- Songs by
*different*artists \(j\) and \(k\), \(Y_{ij}\) and \(Y_{ik}\), have*different*mean parameters \(\mu_j\) and \(\mu_k\). Thus each artist gets a unique mean and one artist’s mean doesn’t tell us anything about another’s. - Whereas our model does
*not*pool information about the players’ mean popularity levels \(\mu_j\), by assuming that the artists share the \(\sigma\) standard deviation parameter, it*does*pool information from the artists to learn about \(\sigma\). We*could*also assign unique standard deviation parameters to each artist, \(\sigma_j\), but the shared standard deviation assumption simplifies things a great deal. In this spirit of simplicity, we’ll continue to refer to (16.3) as a no pooled model, though “no” pooled might be more appropriate.

Finally, to complete the no pooled model, we utilize weakly informative Normal priors for the mean parameters \(\mu_j\) (each centered at an average popularity rating of 50) and an Exponential prior for the standard deviation parameter \(\sigma\). Since the 44 \(\mu_j\) priors are uniquely tuned for the corresponding artist \(j\), we do not list them out here:

\[\begin{equation} \begin{split} Y_{ij} | \mu_j, \sigma_j & \sim N(\mu_j, \sigma^2) \\ \mu_j & \sim N(50, s_j^2) \\ \sigma & \sim \text{Exp}(0.048) \\ \end{split} \tag{16.3} \end{equation}\]

To simulate the no pooled model posteriors, we can make one call to `stan_glm()`

by treating `artist`

as a *predictor* in a regression model of `popularity`

which lacks a global intercept term:^{69}

```
<- stan_glm(
spotify_no_pooled ~ artist - 1,
popularity data = spotify, family = gaussian,
prior = normal(50, 2.5, autoscale = TRUE),
prior_aux = exponential(1, autoscale = TRUE),
chains = 4, iter = 5000*2, seed = 84735)
```

Based on your understanding of the no pooling strategy and model thus far, complete the quiz below.^{70}

Suppose the following three artists each release a new song on Spotify:

- Mia X, the artist with the lowest mean popularity in our sample (13).
- Beyoncé, an artist with nearly the highest mean popularity in our sample (70).
- Mohsen Beats, a musical group that we
*didn’t*observe.

Using the no pooled model, what will be the approximate posterior predictive mean of each song’s popularity?

Since each artist gets a unique mean popularity parameter \(\mu_j\) which is modeled using their unique song data, they each get a unique posterior predictive model for their next song’s popularity.
Having utilized weakly informative priors, it thus makes sense that Mia X’s posterior predictive model should be centered near her observed sample mean of 13, whereas Beyoncé’s should be near 70.
In fact, Figure 16.6 confirms that the posterior predictive model for the popularity of *each* artist’s next song is centered around the mean popularity of their observed sample songs.

```
# Simulate the posterior predictive models
set.seed(84735)
<- posterior_predict(
predictions_no newdata = artist_means)
spotify_no_pooled,
# Plot the posterior predictive intervals
ppc_intervals(artist_means$popularity, yrep = predictions_no,
prob_outer = 0.80) +
::scale_x_continuous(labels = artist_means$artist,
ggplot2breaks = 1:nrow(artist_means)) +
xaxis_text(angle = 90, hjust = 1)
```

If we didn’t pause and reflect, this result might *seem* good.
The no pooled model acknowledges that some artists tend to be more popular than others.
However, there are two critical drawbacks.
**First, the no pooled model ignores data on one artist when learning about the typical popularity of another.**
This is especially problematic when it comes to artists for whom we have few data points.
For example, our *low* posterior predictions for Mia X’s next song were based on a measly 4 songs.
The other artists’ data suggests that these low ratings might just be a tough break – her next song might be more popular!
Similarly, our *high* posterior predictions for Lil Skies’ next song were based on only 3 songs.
In light of the other artists’ data, we might wonder whether this was beginner’s luck that will be tough to maintain.

**Second, the no pooled model cannot be generalized to artists outside our sample.**
Remember Mohsen Beats?
Since the no pooled model is tailor-made to the artists in our sample, and Mohsen Beats isn’t part of this sample, it *cannot* be used to predict the popularity of Mohsen Beats’ next song.
That is, just as the no pooled model assumes that no artist in our sample contains valuable information about the typical popularity of another artist in our sample, it assumes that our sampled artists tell us nothing about the typical popularity of artists that didn’t make it into our sample.
This also speaks to why we cannot account for the grouped structure of our data by including `artist`

as a categorical *predictor* \(X\).
On top of violating the assumption of independence, doing so would allow us to learn about *only* the 44 artists in our sample.

## 16.3 Building the hierarchical model

### 16.3.1 The hierarchy

We hope we’ve re-convinced you that we must pay careful attention to hierarchically structured data.
To this end, we’ll finally concretize a hierarchical Normal model of Spotify popularity.
There are a few layers to this model, two related to the hierarchically structured `spotify`

data (Figure 16.1) and a third related to the prior models on our model parameters.
A very general outline for this model is below, the layers merely numbered for reference:

\[\begin{equation} \begin{array}{lrl} \text{Layer 1:} & \hspace{-0.05in} Y_{ij} | \mu_j, \sigma_y & \hspace{-0.075in} \sim \text{model of how song popularity varies WITHIN artist } j \\ \text{Layer 2:} & \hspace{-0.05in} \mu_j | \mu, \sigma_\mu & \hspace{-0.075in} \sim \text{model of how the typical popularity $\mu_j$ varies BETWEEN artists}\\ \text{Layer 3:} & \hspace{-0.05in} \mu, \sigma_y, \sigma_\mu & \hspace{-0.075in} \sim \text{prior models for shared global parameters} \\ \end{array} \tag{16.4} \end{equation}\]

**Layer 1** deals with the smallest unit in our hierarchical data: individual songs within each artist.
As with the *no* pooled model (16.2), this first layer is group or artist specific, thus acknowledges that song popularity \(Y_{ij}\) depends in part on the artist.
Specifically, **within** each artist \(j\), we assume that the popularity of songs \(i\) are *Normally* distributed around some mean \(\mu_j\) with standard deviation \(\sigma_y\):

\[Y_{ij} | \mu_j, \sigma_y \sim N(\mu_j, \sigma_y^2)\]

Thus the meanings of the Layer 1 parameters are the same as they were for the no pooled model:

- \(\mu_j\) = mean song popularity for artist \(j\); and
- \(\sigma_y\) =
**within group variability**, i.e. the standard deviation in popularity from song to song within each artist.

Moving forward, if we were to place separate priors on each artist mean popularity parameter \(\mu_j\), we’d be right back at the no pooled model (16.3).
**Layer 2** of (16.4) is where the hierarchical model begins to distinguish itself.
Instead of assuming that one artist’s popularity level can’t tell us about another, Layer 2 acknowledges that our 44 sampled artists are all drawn from the same broader population of Spotify artists.
Within this population, popularity varies from artist to artist.
We model this variability in mean popularity **between** artists by assuming that the individual mean popularity levels, \(\mu_j\), are *Normally* distributed around \(\mu\) with standard deviation \(\sigma_\mu\),

\[\mu_j | \mu, \sigma_\mu \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2_\mu) \; .\]

Thus we can think of the two new parameters as follows:

- \(\mu\) = the
**global average**of mean song popularity \(\mu_j\) across all artists \(j\), i.e. the mean popularity rating for the most average artist; and - \(\sigma_\mu\) =
**between group variability**, i.e. the standard deviation in mean popularity \(\mu_j\) from artist to artist.

A density plot of the *mean* popularity levels for our 44 artists indicates that this prior assumption is reasonable.
The artists’ observed sample means *do* appear to be roughly Normally distributed some global mean:

```
ggplot(artist_means, aes(x = popularity)) +
geom_density()
```

**Notation alert**

There’s a difference between \(\mu_j\) and \(\mu\).
When a parameter has a subscript \(j\), it refers to a feature of group \(j\).
When a parameter *doesn’t* have a subscript \(j\), it’s the *global* counterpart, i.e. the same feature across all groups.

Though Layers 1 and 2 inform our understanding of the hierarchically structured data, remember that this is a Bayesian book.
Thus in the final **Layer 3** of our hierarchical model (16.4), we must specify prior models for the **global parameters** which describe and are shared across the entire population of Spotify artists: \(\mu\), \(\sigma_y\), and \(\sigma_\mu\).
As usual, the Normal model provides a reasonable prior for the mean parameter \(\mu\) and the Exponential provides a reasonable prior for the standard deviation terms, \(\sigma_y\) and \(\sigma_\mu\).

Putting this all together, our final hierarchical model brings together the models of how individual song popularity \(Y_{ij}\) varies *within* artists (Layer 1) with the model of how mean popularity levels \(\mu_j\) vary *between* artists (Layer 2) with our prior understanding of the entire population of artists (Layer 3).
The weakly informative priors are specified here and confirmed below.
Note that we again assume a baseline song popularity rating of 50.

\[\begin{equation} \begin{array}{rll} Y_{ij} | \mu_j, \sigma_y & \sim N(\mu_j, \sigma_y^2) & \text{model of individual songs within artist $j$} \\ \mu_j | \mu, \sigma_\mu & \stackrel{ind}{\sim} N(\mu, \sigma_\mu^2) & \text{model of variability between artists}\\ \mu & \sim N(50, 52^2) & \text{prior models on global parameters} \\ \sigma_y & \sim \text{Exp}(0.048) & \\ \sigma_\mu & \sim \text{Exp}(1) & \\ \end{array} \tag{16.5} \end{equation}\]

This type of model has a special name: one-way analysis of variance. We’ll explore the motivation behind this moniker in Section 16.3.3.

**One-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)**

Suppose we have multiple data points on each of \(m\) groups. For each group \(j \in \{1,2,\ldots,m\}\), let \(Y_{ij}\) denote the \(i\)th observation and \(n_j\) denote the sample size. Then the one-way ANOVA model of \(Y_{ij}\) is:

\[\begin{equation} \begin{array}{rll} Y_{ij} | \mu_j, \sigma_y & \sim N(\mu_j, \sigma_y^2) & \text{model of individual observations within group $j$} \\ \mu_j | \mu, \sigma_\mu & \stackrel{ind}{\sim} N(\mu, \sigma_\mu^2) & \text{model of how parameters vary between groups}\\ \mu & \sim N(m, s^2) & \text{prior models on global parameters} \\ \sigma_y & \sim \text{Exp}(l_y) & \\ \sigma_\mu & \sim \text{Exp}(l_{\mu}) & \\ \end{array} \tag{16.6} \end{equation}\]

### 16.3.2 Another way to think about it

In our hierarchical Spotify analysis, we’ve incorporated artist-specific mean parameters \(\mu_j\) to indicate that the average song popularity can vary by artist \(j\).
Our hierarchical model (16.5) presents these artist-specific means \(\mu_j\) as Normal deviations from the global mean song popularity \(\mu\) with standard deviation \(\sigma_\mu\): \(\mu_j \sim N(\mu, \sigma_\mu^2)\).
*Equivalently*, we can think of the artist-specific means as random *tweaks* or *adjustments* \(b_{j}\) to \(\mu\),

\[\mu_j = \mu + b_{j} \;\]

where these tweaks are normal deviations from *0* with standard deviation \(\sigma_\mu\):

\[b_j \sim N(0, \sigma_\mu^2) \; .\]

For example, suppose that the average popularity of *all* songs on Spotify is \(\mu = 55\) whereas the average popularity for some artist \(j\) is \(\mu_j = 65\).
Then this artist’s average popularity is 10 above the global average.
That is, \(b_j = 10\) and

\[\mu_j = \mu + b_j = 55 + 10 = 65 \; .\]

In general then, we can reframe Layers 1 and 2 of our hierarchical model (16.5) as follows:

\[\begin{equation} \begin{split} Y_{ij} | \mu_j, \sigma_y & \sim N(\mu_j, \sigma_y^2) \;\; \text{ with } \;\; \mu_j = \mu + b_{j} \\ b_{j} | \sigma_\mu & \stackrel{ind}{\sim} N(0, \sigma_\mu^2) \\ \mu & \sim N(50, 52^2) \\ \sigma_y & \sim \text{Exp}(0.048) \\ \sigma_\mu & \sim \text{Exp}(1) \\ \end{split} \tag{16.7} \end{equation}\]

Again, these two model formulations, (16.5) and (16.7), are equivalent. They’re just two different ways to think about the hierarchical structure of our data. We’ll use both throughout this book.

### 16.3.3 Within vs between group variability

Let’s take in the model we’ve just built.
The models we studied prior to Unit 4 allow us to explore *one* source of variability, that in the individual observations \(Y\) across an entire population.
In contrast, the aptly named one-way “analysis of variance” models of hierarchical data enable us to decompose the variance in \(Y\) into *two* sources: (1) the variance of individual observations \(Y\) **within** any given group, \(\sigma_y^2\); and (2) the variance of features **between** groups, \(\sigma_{\mu}^2\), i.e. from group to group.
The *total* variance in \(Y\) is the sum of these two parts:

\[\begin{equation} \text{Var}(Y_{ij}) = \sigma_y^2 + \sigma_{\mu}^2 \; . \tag{16.8} \end{equation}\]

We can also think of this breakdown proportionately:

\[\begin{equation} \begin{split} \frac{\sigma^2_y}{\sigma^2_\mu + \sigma^2_y} & = \text{ proportion of $\text{Var}(Y_{ij})$ that can be explained by } \\[-2.5ex] & \; \;\;\;\; \text{ differences in the observations within each group} \\ \frac{\sigma^2_\mu}{\sigma^2_\mu + \sigma^2_y} & = \text{ proportion of $\text{Var}(Y_{ij})$ that can be explained by } \\[-2.5ex] & \;\;\;\;\; \text{ differences between groups} \\ \end{split} \tag{16.9} \end{equation}\]

Or in the context of our Spotify analysis, we can quantify how much of the *total* variability in popularity across all songs and artists (\(\text{Var}(Y_{ij})\)) can be explained by differences between the *songs within each artist* (\(\sigma_y^2\)) and differences *between the artists* themselves (\(\sigma_\mu\)).

Figure 16.8 illustrates three scenarios for the *comparison* of these two sources of variability.
At one extreme is the scenario in which the variability *between* groups is much greater than that *within* groups, \(\sigma_\mu > \sigma_y\) (plot a).
In this case, the majority of the variability in \(Y\) can be explained by differences between the groups.
At the other extreme is the scenario in which the variability *between* groups is much less than that *within* groups, \(\sigma_\mu < \sigma_y\) (plot c).
This leads to very little distinction between the \(Y\) values for the two groups.
As such, the majority of the variability in \(Y\) can be explained by differences between the observations within each group, not between the groups themselves.
With 44 artists, it’s tough to visually assess from the 44 density plots in Figure 16.4 where our Spotify data falls along this spectrum.
However, our posterior analysis in Section 16.4 will reveal that our example is somewhere in the middle.
The differences from song to song within any one artist are similar in scale to the differences between the artists themselves (à la plot b).

Plot (a) illuminates another feature of grouped data: the multiple observations within any given group are *correlated*.
The popularity of one Beyoncé song is related to the popularity of other Beyoncé songs.
The popularity of one Mia X song is related to the popularity of other Mia X songs.
In general, the one-way ANOVA model (16.6) assumes that, though observations on one group are independent of those on another, the **within group correlation** for two observations \(i\) and \(k\) on the *same* group \(j\) is

\[\begin{equation} \text{Cor}(Y_{ij}, Y_{kj}) = \frac{\sigma^2_\mu}{\sigma^2_\mu + \sigma^2_y} \; . \tag{16.10} \end{equation}\]

Thus the more *unique* the groups, with relatively large \(\sigma_\mu\), the greater the correlation within each group.
For example, the within group correlation in plot (a) of Figure 16.8 is 0.8, a figure close-ish to 1.
In contrast, the more *similar* the groups, with relatively small \(\sigma_\mu\), the smaller the correlation within each group.
For example, the within group correlation in plot (c) is 0.2, a figure close-ish to 0.
We’ll return to these ideas once we simulate our model posterior, thus can put some numbers to these metrics for our Spotify data.

## 16.4 Posterior analysis

### 16.4.1 Posterior simulation

Next step: posterior!
Notice that our hierarchical Spotify model (16.5) has a total of 47 parameters: 44 artist-specific parameters (\(\mu_j\)) and 3 global parameters (\(\mu\), \(\sigma_y\), \(\sigma_\mu\)).
Needless to say, exploring the posterior models of these 47 parameters requires MCMC simulation.
To this end, the `stan_glmer()`

function operates very much like `stan_glm()`

, with two small tweaks.

- To indicate that the
`artist`

variable defines the group structure of our data, as opposed to it being a predictor of`popularity`

, the appropriate formula here is`popularity ~ (1 | artist)`

. - The prior for the \(\sigma_\mu\) parameter is specified by
`prior_covariance`

. For this particular model, with only one set of artist-specific parameters \(\mu_j\), this is equivalent to an Exp(1) prior. (You will learn more about`prior_covariance`

for more complicated models in Chapter 17.)

```
<- stan_glmer(
spotify_hierarchical ~ (1 | artist),
popularity data = spotify, family = gaussian,
prior_intercept = normal(50, 2.5, autoscale = TRUE),
prior_aux = exponential(1, autoscale = TRUE),
prior_covariance = decov(reg = 1, conc = 1, shape = 1, scale = 1),
chains = 4, iter = 5000*2, seed = 84735)
# Confirm the prior tunings
prior_summary(spotify_hierarchical)
```

MCMC diagnostics for all 47 parameters confirm that our simulation has stabilized:

```
mcmc_trace(spotify_hierarchical)
mcmc_dens_overlay(spotify_hierarchical)
mcmc_acf(spotify_hierarchical)
neff_ratio(spotify_hierarchical)
rhat(spotify_hierarchical)
```

Further, a quick posterior predictive check confirms that, though we can always do better, our hierarchical model (16.5) isn’t *too* wrong when it comes to capturing variability in song popularity.
A set of posterior simulated datasets of song popularity are consistent with the general features of the original popularity data.

```
pp_check(spotify_hierarchical) +
xlab("popularity")
```

With this reassurance, let’s dig into the posterior results.
To begin, our `spotify_hierarchical`

simulation contains Markov chains of length 20,000 for *each* of our 47 parameters.
To get a sense for how this information is stored, check out the labels of the first and last few parameters:

```
# Store the simulation in a data frame
<- as.data.frame(spotify_hierarchical)
spotify_hierarchical_df
# Check out the first 3 and last 3 parameter labels
%>%
spotify_hierarchical_df colnames() %>%
as.data.frame() %>%
slice(1:3, 45:47)
.1 (Intercept)
2 b[(Intercept) artist:Mia_X]
3 b[(Intercept) artist:Chris_Goldarg]
4 b[(Intercept) artist:Camilo]
5 sigma
6 Sigma[artist:(Intercept),(Intercept)]
```

Due to the sheer number and type of parameters here, summarizing our posterior understanding of all of these parameters will take more care than it did for non-hierarchical models. We’ll take things one step at a time, putting in place the syntactical details we’ll need for all other hierarchical models in Unit 4, i.e. this won’t be a waste of your time!

### 16.4.2 Posterior analysis of global parameters

Let’s begin by examining the **global parameters** (\(\mu\), \(\sigma_y\), \(\sigma_\mu\)) which are shared by all artists within and beyond our particular sample.
These parameters appear at the very top and very bottom of the `stan_glmer()`

output, and are labeled as follows:

- \(\mu\) =
`(Intercept)`

- \(\sigma_y\) =
`sigma`

- \(\sigma_\mu^2\) =
`Sigma[artist:(Intercept),(Intercept)]`

^{71}

To zero in on and obtain posterior summaries for \(\mu\), we can apply `tidy()`

to the `spotify_hierarchical`

model with `effects = fixed`

, where “fixed” is synonymous with “non-varying” or “global.”
Per the results, there’s an 80% chance that the *average* artist has a mean popularity rating between 49.3 and 55.7.

```
tidy(spotify_hierarchical, effects = "fixed",
conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.80)
# A tibble: 1 x 5
term estimate std.error conf.low conf.high<chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
1 (Intercept) 52.5 2.48 49.3 55.7
```

To call up the posterior medians for \(\sigma_y\) and \(\sigma_\mu\), we can specify `effects = "ran_pars"`

, i.e. `par`

ameters related to `ran`

domness or variability:

```
tidy(spotify_hierarchical, effects = "ran_pars")
# A tibble: 2 x 3
term group estimate<chr> <chr> <dbl>
1 sd_(Intercept).artist artist 15.1
2 sd_Observation.Residual Residual 14.0
```

The posterior median of \(\sigma_y\) (`sd_Obervation.Residual`

) suggests that, *within* any given artist, popularity ratings tend to vary by 14 points *from song to song*.
The *between* standard deviation \(\sigma_\mu\) (`sd_(Intercept).artist`

) tends to be slightly higher at around 15.1.
Thus the *mean* popularity rating tends to vary by 15.1 points *from artist to artist*.
By (16.10), these two sources of variability suggest that the popularity levels among multiple songs *by the same artist* tend to have a moderate correlation near 0.54:

```
15.1^2 / (15.1^2 + 14.0^2)
1] 0.5377 [
```

Thinking of this another way, 54% of the variability in song popularity is explained by differences between artists, whereas 46% is explained by differences among the songs within each artist:

```
14.0^2 / (15.1^2 + 14.0^2)
1] 0.4623 [
```

### 16.4.3 Posterior analysis of group-specific parameters

Let’s now turn our focus from the global features to the artist-specific features for our 44 sample artists.
Recall that we can write the artist-specific mean popularity levels \(\mu_j\) as *tweaks* to the global mean song popularity \(\mu\):

\[\mu_j = \mu + b_j \; .\]

Thus \(b_j\) describes the *difference* between artist \(j\)’s mean popularity and the global mean popularity.
It’s these tweaks that are simulated by `stan_glmer()`

– each \(b_j\) has a corresponding Markov chain labeled `b[(Intercept) artist:j]`

.
We can obtain a `tidy()`

posterior summary of all \(b_j\) terms using the argument `effects = "ran_vals"`

(i.e. `ran`

dom artist-specific `val`

ues):

```
<- tidy(spotify_hierarchical, effects = "ran_vals",
artist_summary conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.80)
# Check out the results for the first & last 2 artists
%>%
artist_summary select(level, conf.low, conf.high) %>%
slice(1:2, 43:44)
# A tibble: 4 x 3
level conf.low conf.high<chr> <dbl> <dbl>
1 Mia_X -40.7 -23.4
2 Chris_Goldarg -39.3 -26.8
3 Lil_Skies 11.1 30.2
4 Camilo 19.4 32.4
```

Consider the 80% credible interval for `Camilo`

’s \(b_j\) tweak: there’s an 80% chance that `Camilo`

’s mean popularity rating is between 19.4 and 32.4 *above* that of the average artist.
Similarly, there’s an 80% chance that Mia X’s mean popularity rating is between 23.4 and 40.7 *below* that of the average artist.
We can also *combine* our MCMC simulations for the global mean \(\mu\) and artist tweaks \(b_j\) to directly simulate posterior models for the artist-specific means \(\mu_j\).
For artist “`j`

”:

\[\mu_j = \mu + b_j = \text{(Intercept) + b[(Intercept) artist:j]}\; .\]

For this task, we find the **tidybayes** package to provide the most straightforward tools.
We’ll take this one step at a time here, but combine these steps in later analyses.
To begin, we use `spread_draws()`

to extract the `(Intercept)`

and `b[(Intercept) artist:j]`

values for each artist in each iteration.
We then sum these two terms to define `mu_j`

.
This produces an 880000 row data frame which contains 20000 MCMC samples of \(\mu_j\) for each of the 44 artists \(j\):

```
# Get MCMC chains for each mu_j
<- spotify_hierarchical %>%
artist_chains spread_draws(`(Intercept)`, b[,artist]) %>%
mutate(mu_j = `(Intercept)` + b)
# Check it out
%>%
artist_chains select(artist, `(Intercept)`, b, mu_j) %>%
head(4)
# A tibble: 4 x 4
# Groups: artist [4]
`(Intercept)` b mu_j
artist <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
1 artist:Alok 51.1 16.3 67.4
2 artist:Atlas_Genius 51.1 8.46 59.5
3 artist:Au/Ra 51.1 4.18 55.3
4 artist:Beyoncé 51.1 15.0 66.1
```

For example, at the first set of chain values, `Alok`

’s mean popularity (67.4) is 16.3 points *above* the average (51.1).
Next, `mean_qi()`

produces posterior summaries for each artist’s mean popularity \(\mu_j\), including the posterior mean and an 80% credible interval:

```
# Get posterior summaries for mu_j
<- artist_chains %>%
artist_summary_scaled select(-`(Intercept)`, -b) %>%
mean_qi(.width = 0.80) %>%
mutate(artist = fct_reorder(artist, mu_j))
# Check out the results
%>%
artist_summary_scaled select(artist, mu_j, .lower, .upper) %>%
head(4)
# A tibble: 4 x 4
artist mu_j .lower .upper<fct> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
1 artist:Alok 64.3 60.3 68.3
2 artist:Atlas_Genius 46.9 38.8 55.0
3 artist:Au/Ra 59.5 52.1 66.7
4 artist:Beyoncé 69.1 65.6 72.7
```

For example, with 80% posterior certainty, we can say that Beyoncé’s mean popularity rating \(\mu_j\) is between 65.6 and 72.7. Plotting the 80% posterior credible intervals for all 44 artists illustrates the variability in our posterior understanding of their mean popularity levels \(\mu_j\):

```
ggplot(artist_summary_scaled,
aes(x = artist, y = mu_j, ymin = .lower, ymax = .upper)) +
geom_pointrange() +
xaxis_text(angle = 90, hjust = 1)
```

Not only do the \(\mu_j\) posteriors vary in *location*, i.e. we expect some artists to be more popular than others, they vary in *scale* – some artists’ 80% posterior credible intervals are much wider than others’.
Pause to think about *why* in the following quiz.^{72}

At the more popular end of the spectrum, `Lil Skies`

and `Frank Ocean`

have similar posterior mean popularity levels.
However, the 80% credible interval for Lil Skies’ is *much* wider than that for Frank Ocean.
Explain why.

To sleuth out exactly why Lil Skies and Frank Ocean have similar posterior means but drastically different intervals, it’s important to remember that not all is equal in our hierarchical data.
Whereas our posterior understanding of Frank Ocean is based on 40 songs, the *most* of any artist in the dataset, we have only 3 songs for Lil Skies.
Then we naturally have greater posterior certainty about Frank Ocean’s popularity, hence narrower intervals.

```
%>%
artist_means filter(artist %in% c("Frank Ocean", "Lil Skies"))
# A tibble: 2 x 3
artist count popularity<fct> <int> <dbl>
1 Frank Ocean 40 69.8
2 Lil Skies 3 79.3
```

## 16.5 Posterior prediction

Our above analysis of the \(\mu_j\) and \(\mu\) parameters informed our understanding about general trends in popularity within and between artists.
We now turn our attention from trends to specifics: predicting the popularity \(Y_{\text{new}, j}\) of the next *new* song released by artist \(j\) on Spotify.
Though the process is different, we can utilize our hierarchical model (16.5) to make such a prediction for *any* artist, both those that did and didn’t make it into our sample:
How popular will the next song by Frank Ocean, an artist in our original sample, be?
What about the next song by Mohsen Beats, an artist for whom we don’t yet have any data?
To connect this concept to hierarchical modeling, it’s important to go through this process “by hand” before relying on the shortcut `posterior_predict()`

function.
We’ll do that here.

First consider the **posterior prediction for an observed group** or artist, Frank Ocean, the \(j\) = 39th artist in our sample.
The first layer of our hierarchical model (16.5) holds the key in this situation: it assumes that the popularity of individual Frank Ocean songs are Normally distributed around his own mean popularity level \(\mu_j\) with standard deviation \(\sigma_y\).
Thus to approximate the posterior predictive model for the popularity of Ocean’s *next* song on Spotify, we can simulate a prediction from the Layer 1 model evaluated at each of the 20,000 MCMC parameter sets \(\left\lbrace \mu_j^{(i)}, \sigma_y^{(i)}\right\rbrace\):

\[\begin{equation} Y_{\text{new,j}}^{(i)} | \mu_j, \sigma_y \; \sim \; N\left(\mu_j^{(i)}, \left(\sigma_y^{(i)}\right)^2\right) \tag{16.11} \end{equation}\]

The resulting predictions \(\left\lbrace Y_{\text{new},j}^{(1)}, Y_{\text{new},j}^{(2)}, \ldots, Y_{\text{new},j}^{(20000)} \right\rbrace\) and corresponding posterior predictive model will reflect two sources of variability, hence uncertainty, in the popularity of Ocean’s next song:

**within group sampling variability**in \(Y\), i.e. not all of Ocean’s songs are equally popular; and**posterior variability**in the model parameters \(\mu_j\) and \(\sigma_y\), i.e. the underlying mean and variability in popularity across Ocean’s songs are unknown and can, themselves, vary.

To construct this set of predictions, we first obtain the Markov chain for \(\mu_j\) (`mu_ocean`

) by summing the global mean \(\mu\) `(Intercept)`

and the artist adjustment (`b[(Intercept) artist:Frank_Ocean]`

).
We then simulate a prediction (`y_ocean`

) from the Layer 1 model at each MCMC parameter set:

```
# Simulate Ocean's posterior predictive model
set.seed(84735)
<- spotify_hierarchical_df %>%
ocean_chains rename(b = `b[(Intercept) artist:Frank_Ocean]`) %>%
select(`(Intercept)`, b, sigma) %>%
mutate(mu_ocean = `(Intercept)` + b,
y_ocean = rnorm(20000, mean = mu_ocean, sd = sigma))
# Check it out
head(ocean_chains, 3)
(Intercept) b sigma mu_ocean y_ocean1 51.08 16.62 14.64 67.70 77.47
2 51.82 19.84 13.28 71.66 70.01
3 52.40 21.09 15.21 73.49 85.36
```

We summarize Ocean’s posterior predictive model using `mean_qi()`

below.
There’s an 80% posterior chance that Ocean’s next song will enjoy a popularity rating \(Y_{\text{new,j}}\) between 51.3 and 87.6.
This range is much *wider* than the 80% credible interval for Ocean’s \(\mu_j\) parameter (66.6, 72.2).
Naturally, we can be much more certain about Ocean’s underlying *mean* song popularity than in the popularity of any *single* Ocean song.

```
# Posterior summary of Y_new,j
%>%
ocean_chains mean_qi(y_ocean, .width = 0.80)
y_ocean .lower .upper .width .point .interval1 69.37 51.31 87.64 0.8 mean qi
# Posterior summary of mu_j
%>%
artist_summary_scaled filter(artist == "artist:Frank_Ocean")
# A tibble: 1 x 7
artist mu_j .lower .upper .width .point .interval<fct> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <chr> <chr>
1 artist:F… 69.4 66.6 72.2 0.8 mean qi
```

Next consider **posterior prediction for a yet unobserved group**.
No observed songs for Mohsen Beats means that we do *not* have any information about their mean popularity \(\mu_j\), thus can’t take the same approach as we did for Ocean.
What we *do* know is this: (1) Mohsen Beats is an artist within the broader population of artists; (2) mean popularity levels among these artists are Normally distributed around some global mean \(\mu\) with between-artist standard deviation \(\sigma_\mu\) (Layer 2 of (16.5)); and (3) our 44 sampled artists have informed our posterior understanding of this broader population.
Then to approximate the posterior predictive model for the popularity of Mohsen Beats’ next song, we can simulate 20,000 predictions \(\left\lbrace Y_{\text{new},\text{mohsen}}^{(1)}, Y_{\text{new},\text{mohsen}}^{(2)}, \ldots, Y_{\text{new},\text{mohsen}}^{(20000)} \right\rbrace\) through a two step process:

**Step 1:**Simulate a potential*mean*popularity level \(\mu_{\text{mohsen}}\) for Mohsen Beats by drawing from the Layer 2 model evaluated at each MCMC parameter set \(\left\lbrace \mu^{(i)}, \sigma_\mu^{(i)}\right\rbrace\):\[\mu_{\text{mohsen}}^{(i)} | \mu, \sigma_\mu \; \sim \; N\left(\mu^{(i)}, \left(\sigma_\mu^{(i)}\right)^2\right)\]

**Step 2:**Simulate a prediction of song popularity \(Y_{\text{new},\text{mohsen}}\) from the Layer 1 model evaluated at each MCMC parameter set \(\left\lbrace \mu_{\text{mohsen}}^{(i)}, \sigma_y^{(i)}\right\rbrace\):\[Y_{\text{new},\text{mohsen}}^{(i)} | \mu_{\text{mohsen}}, \sigma_y \; \sim \; N\left(\mu_{\text{mohsen}}^{(i)}, \left(\sigma_y^{(i)}\right)^2\right)\]

The additional step in our Mohsen Beats’ posterior prediction process reflects a *third* source of variability.
When predicting song popularity for a new group, we must account for:

**within group sampling variability**in \(Y\), i.e. not all of Mohsen Beats’*songs*are equally popular;**between group sampling variability**in \(\mu_j\), i.e. not all*artists*are equally popular; and**posterior variability**in the global model parameters \((\sigma_y, \mu, \sigma_\mu)\).

We implement these ideas to simulate 20,000 posterior predictions for Mohsen Beats below.
Knowing *nothing* about Mohsen Beats other than that they are an artist, we’re able to predict with 80% posterior certainty that their next song will have a popularity rating somewhere between 25.72 and 78.82:

```
set.seed(84735)
<- spotify_hierarchical_df %>%
mohsen_chains mutate(sigma_mu = sqrt(`Sigma[artist:(Intercept),(Intercept)]`),
mu_mohsen = rnorm(20000, `(Intercept)`, sigma_mu),
y_mohsen = rnorm(20000, mu_mohsen, sigma))
# Posterior predictive summaries
%>%
mohsen_chains mean_qi(y_mohsen, .width = 0.80)
y_mohsen .lower .upper .width .point .interval1 52.31 25.72 78.82 0.8 mean qi
```

Finally, below we replicate these “by hand” simulations for Frank Ocean and Mohsen Beats using the `posterior_predict()`

shortcut function.
Plots of the resulting posterior predictive models illustrate two key features of our understanding about our two artists (Figure 16.11).
First, we anticipate that Ocean’s next song will have a higher probability rating.
This makes sense – since Ocean’s observed sample songs were popular, we’d expect his next song to be more popular than that of an artist for whom we have no information.
Second, we have greater posterior certainty about Ocean’s next song.
This again makes sense – since we actually have some data for Ocean (and don’t for Mohsen Beats), we *should* be more confident in our ability to predict his next song’s popularity.
We’ll continue our hierarchical posterior prediction exploration in the next section, paying special attention to how the results compare with those from no pooled and complete pooled models.

```
set.seed(84735)
<- posterior_predict(
prediction_shortcut
spotify_hierarchical,newdata = data.frame(artist = c("Frank Ocean", "Mohsen Beats")))
# Posterior predictive model plots
mcmc_areas(prediction_shortcut, prob = 0.8) +
::scale_y_discrete(labels = c("Frank Ocean", "Mohsen Beats")) ggplot2
```

## 16.6 Shrinkage & the bias-variance trade-off

In the previous section, we constructed posterior predictive models of song popularity for just one observed artist, Frank Ocean. We now apply these techniques to all 44 artists in our sample and plot the resulting 80% posterior prediction intervals and means (Figure 16.12).

```
set.seed(84735)
<- posterior_predict(spotify_hierarchical,
predictions_hierarchical newdata = artist_means)
# Posterior predictive plots
ppc_intervals(artist_means$popularity, yrep = predictions_hierarchical,
prob_outer = 0.80) +
::scale_x_continuous(labels = artist_means$artist,
ggplot2breaks = 1:nrow(artist_means)) +
xaxis_text(angle = 90, hjust = 1) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 58.4, linetype = "dashed")
```

In this plot we can observe a phenomenon called **shrinkage**.

What might “shrinkage” mean in this Spotify example and why might it occur?

To understand shrinkage, we first need to remember where we’ve been.
In Section 16.1 we started our Spotify analysis with a complete pooled model which entirely ignored the fact that our data is grouped by artist (16.1).
As a result, its posterior mean predictions of song popularity were the same for each artist (Figure 16.3).
When using weakly informative priors, this shared prediction is *roughly* equivalent to the global mean popularity level across all \(n\) = 350 songs in the `spotify`

sample, ignoring artist:

\[\overline{y}_{\text{global}} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{\text{all } i,j }y_{ij}\]

We swung the other direction in Section 16.2, using a no pooled model which separately analyzed each artist (16.3).
As such, when using weakly informative priors, the no pooled posterior predictive means were *roughly* equivalent to the sample mean popularity levels for each artist (Figure 16.6).
For any artist \(j\), this sample mean is calculated by averaging the popularity levels \(y_{ij}\) of each song \(i\) across the artist’s \(n_j\) songs:

\[\overline{y}_j = \frac{1}{n_j}\sum_{i=1}^{n_j} y_{ij}\]

Figure 16.12 contrasts the hierarchical model posterior mean predictions with the complete pooled model predictions (dashed horizontal line) and no pooled model predictions (dark blue dots).
In general, our hierarchical posterior understanding of artists strikes a *balance* between these two extremes – the hierarchical predictions are *pulled* or *shrunk* toward the global trends of the complete pooled model and away from the local trends of the no pooled model.
Hence the term shrinkage.

**Shrinkage**

**Shrinkage** refers to the phenomenon in which the group-specific local trends in a hierarchical model are pulled or *shrunk* toward the global trends.

When utilizing weakly informative priors, the posterior mean predictions of song popularity from the hierarchical model are (roughly) weighted averages of those from the complete pooled (\(\overline{y}_{\text{global}}\)) and no pooled (\(\overline{y}_j\)) models:

\[\frac{\sigma^2_y}{\sigma^2_y + n_j \sigma^2_\mu} \overline{y}_{\text{global}} + \frac{n_j\sigma^2_\mu}{\sigma^2_y + n_j \sigma^2_\mu} \overline{y}_j\]

In posterior predictions for artist \(j\), the *weights* given to the global and local means depend upon how much data we have on artist \(j\) (\(n_j\)) as well as the comparison of the *within*-group and *between*-group variability in song popularity (\(\sigma_y\) and \(\sigma_\mu\)).
These weights highlight a couple of scenarios in which individualism fades, i.e. our hierarchical posterior predictions shrink away from the group-specific means \(\overline{y}_j\) and toward the global mean \(\overline{y}_\text{global}\):

Shrinkage increases as the number of observations on group \(j\), \(n_j\), decreases. That is, we rely more and more on global trends to understand a group for which we have little data.

Shrinkage increases when the variability within groups, \(\sigma_y\), is large in comparison to the variability between groups, \(\sigma_\mu\). That is, we rely more and more on global trends to understand a group when there is little distinction in the patterns from one group to the next (see Figure 16.8).

We can see these dynamics at play in Figure 16.12 – some artists shrunk more toward the global mean popularity levels than others.
The artists that shrunk the *most* are those with smaller sample sizes \(n_j\) and popularity levels at the extremes of the spectrum.
Consider two of the most popular artists: `Camila Cabello`

and `Lil Skies`

.
Though Cabello’s observed mean popularity is slightly lower than that of `Lil Skies`

, it’s based on a *much* bigger sample size:

```
%>%
artist_means filter(artist %in% c("Camila Cabello", "Lil Skies"))
# A tibble: 2 x 3
artist count popularity<fct> <int> <dbl>
1 Camila Cabello 38 77.1
2 Lil Skies 3 79.3
```

As such, Lil Skies’ posterior predictive mean popularity shrunk closer to the global mean –
the data on the other artists in our sample suggests that `Lil Skies`

might have beginner’s luck, thus that their next song will likely be below their current three-song average.
This makes sense and is a compelling feature of hierarchical models.
Striking a balance between complete and no pooling, hierarchical models allow us to:

**generalize**the observations on our sampled groups to the broader population; while**borrowing strength**or information from all sampled groups when learning about any individual sampled group.

Hierarchical models also offer balance in the bias-variance trade-off we discussed in Chapter 11. Before elaborating, take a quick quiz.

Consider the three modeling approaches in this chapter: no pooled, complete pooled, and hierarchical models.

- Suppose different researchers were to conduct their own Spotify analyses using different samples of artists and songs. Which approach would be the most
**variable**from sample to sample? The*least*variable? - Which approach would tend to be the most
**biased**in estimating artists’ mean popularity levels? That is, which model’s posterior mean estimates will tend to be the furthest from the observed means? Which would tend to be the*least*biased?

The extremes presented by the complete pooled and no pooled models correspond to the extremes of the bias-variance trade-off.
Consider the complete pooled model.
By pooling all cases together, this model is very rigid and won’t vary much if based on a different sample of Spotify artists.
BUT it also tends to be overly simple and miss the nuances in artists’ mean popularity (Figure 16.3).
Thus complete pooled models tend to have **higher bias and lower variance**.

No pooled models have the opposite problem.
With the built-in flexibility to detect group-specific trends, they tend to have less bias than complete pooled models.
BUT, since they’re tailored to the artists in our sample, if we sampled a different set of Spotify artists our no pooled models could change quite a bit, thus produce unstable conclusions.
Thus no pooled models tend to have **lower bias and higher variance**.

Hierarchical models offer a balanced alternative. Unlike complete pooled models, hierarchical models take group-specific trends into account, thus will be less biased. And unlike no pooled models, hierarchical models take global trends into account, thus will be less variable. Hierarchical models!

## 16.7 Not everything is hierarchical

Now that we’ve seen the power of hierarchical models, you might question whether we should have been using them all along.
The answer is no.
To determine *when* hierarchical models are appropriate, we must understand how our data was collected – did it include some natural grouping structure?
Answering this question often comes down to understanding the role of a categorical variable within a dataset.
For example, in the no pooled model of song `popularity`

, we essentially treated the categorical `artist`

variable as a *predictor*.
In the hierarchical model, we treated `artist`

as a *grouping variable*.

**Grouping variable vs predictor**

Suppose our dataset includes a categorical variable \(X\) for which we have multiple observations per category. To determine whether \(X\) encodes some *grouping* structure or is a potential *predictor* of our variable \(Y\), the following distinctions can help:

If the observed data on \(X\) covers

*all*categories of interest, it’s likely*not*a grouping variable, but rather a potential predictor.If the observed categories on \(X\) are merely a random sample from many of interest, it

*is*a potential grouping variable.

Let’s apply this thinking to the categorical `artist`

variable.
Our sample data included multiple observations for a mere random sample of 44 among *thousands* of artists on Spotify.
Hence treating `artist`

as a predictor (as in the no pooled model) would limit our understanding to only these artists.
In contrast, treating it as a grouping variable (as in the hierarchical model) allows us to not only learn about the 44 artists in our data, but the broader population of artists from which they were sampled.

Check out another example.
Reconsider the `bikes`

data from Chapter 9 which, on each of 500 days, records the number of `rides`

taken by Capital Bikeshare members and whether the day fell on a `weekend`

:

```
data(bikes)
%>%
bikes select(rides, weekend) %>%
head(3)
rides weekend1 654 TRUE
2 1229 FALSE
3 1454 FALSE
```

In a model of `rides`

, is the `weekend`

variable a potential *grouping variable* or *predictor*?

There are only two possible categories for the `weekend`

variable: each day either falls on a weekend (`TRUE`

) or it doesn’t (`FALSE`

).
Our dataset covers both instances:

```
%>%
bikes group_by(weekend) %>%
tally()
# A tibble: 2 x 2
weekend n<lgl> <int>
1 FALSE 359
2 TRUE 141
```

Since the observed `weekend`

values cover all categories of interest, it’s *not* a grouping variable.
Rather, it’s a potential *predictor* that can help us explore whether ridership is different on weekends vs weekdays.

Consider yet another example.
To address disparities in vocabulary levels among children from households with different income levels, the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) evaluated the effectiveness of a digital vocabulary learning program, the *Big Word Club* (Kalil, Mayer, and Oreopoulos 2020).
To do so, they enrolled 818 students across 47 different schools in a vocabulary study.
Data on the students’ vocabulary levels *after* completing this program (`score_a2`

) was obtained through the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) and stored in the `big_word_club`

dataset in the **bayesrules** package.
We’ll keep only the students for whom we have a vocabulary score:

```
data(big_word_club)
<- big_word_club %>%
big_word_club select(score_a2, school_id) %>%
na.omit()
%>%
big_word_club slice(1:2, 602:603)
score_a2 school_id1 28 1
2 25 1
3 31 47
4 34 47
```

In a model of `score_a2`

, is the `school_id`

variable a potential *grouping variable* or *predictor*?

In this setting `school_id`

is a grouping variable.
Consider two clues: we observed *multiple* students within each of 47 schools; and these 47 schools are merely a small sample from the *thousands* of schools out there.
In this case, treating `school_id`

as a *predictor* of `score_a2`

(à la no pooling) would only allow us to learn about our small sample of schools whereas treating `school_id`

as a *grouping variable* in a *hierarchical* model of `score_a2`

would allow us to extend our conclusions to the broader population of all schools.

## 16.8 Chapter summary

In Chapter 16 we explored how to model hierarchical data.
Suppose we have multiple data points on each of \(m\) groups.
For each group \(j \in \{1,2,\ldots,m\}\), let \(Y_{ij}\) denote the \(i\)th observation and \(n_j\) denote the sample size.
Thus our data on variable \(Y\) is the *collection* of smaller samples on each of the \(m\) groups:

\[Y := \left((Y_{11}, Y_{21}, \ldots, Y_{n_1,1}), (Y_{12}, Y_{22}, \ldots, Y_{n_2,2}), \ldots, (Y_{1,m}, Y_{2,m}, \ldots, Y_{n_m,m})\right) \; .\]

And the hierarchical **one-way analysis of variance** model of \(Y\) consists of three layers:

\[\begin{equation} \begin{array}{rll} Y_{ij} | \mu_j, \sigma_y & \sim N(\mu_j, \sigma_y^2) & \text{model of individual observations within group $j$} \\ \mu_j | \mu, \sigma_\mu & \stackrel{ind}{\sim} N(\mu, \sigma_\mu^2) & \text{model of how parameters vary between groups}\\ \mu & \sim N(m, s^2) & \text{prior models on global parameters} \\ \sigma_y & \sim \text{Exp}(l_y) & \\ \sigma_\mu & \sim \text{Exp}(l_{\mu}) & \\ \end{array} \tag{16.12} \end{equation}\]

Equivalently, we can decompose the \(\mu_j\) terms into \(\mu_j = \mu + b_j\) and model the variability in \(b_j\):

\[\begin{split} Y_{ij} | \mu_j, \sigma_y & \sim N(\mu_j, \sigma_y^2) \;\; \text{ with } \mu_j = \mu + b_j \\ b_j | \mu, \sigma_\mu & \stackrel{ind}{\sim} N(0, \sigma_\mu^2) \\ \mu & \sim N(m, s^2) \\ \sigma_y & \sim \text{Exp}(l_y) \\ \sigma_\mu & \sim \text{Exp}(l_{\mu}) \\ \end{split}\]

Here’s a list of cool things about this model:

- it acknowledges that, though observations on one group are independent of those on another, observations
*within*any given group are correlated; - group-varying or group-specific parameters \(\mu_j\) provide insight into group-specific trends;
- global parameters (\(\mu,\sigma_y,\sigma_\mu\)) provide insight into the broader population;
- to learn about any one group, this model borrows strength from the information on other groups, thereby
*shrinking*group-specific local phenomena toward the global trends; and - this model is less variable than the no pooling approach and less biased than the complete pooling approach.

## 16.9 Exercises

### 16.9.1 Conceptual Exercises

**Exercise 16.1 (Shrinkage)**The plot below illustrates the distribution of critic ratings for 7 coffee shops. Suppose we were to model coffee shop ratings using three different approaches: complete pooled, no pooled, and hierarchical. For each model, include a representive sketch of what the posterior mean ratings for the 7 coffee shops might look like on the plot below.

**Exercise 16.2 (Grouping variable or predictor?)**

- The
`climbers_sub`

data in the`bayesrules`

package contains outcomes for 2076 climbers that have sought to summit a Himalayan mountain peak. In a model of climber`success`

, is`expedition_id`

a potential predictor or a grouping variable? Explain. - In a model of climber
`success`

, is`season`

a potential predictor or a grouping variable? Explain. - The
`coffee_ratings`

data in the`bayesrules`

package contains ratings for 1339 different coffee batches. In a model of coffee ratings (`total_cup_points`

), is`processing_method`

a potential predictor or a grouping variable? Explain. - In a model of coffee ratings (
`total_cup_points`

), is`farm_name`

a potential predictor or a grouping variable? Explain.

**Exercise 16.3 (Speed typing: interpret the coefficients)**Alicia loves typing. To share the appreciation, she invites four friends to each take 20 speed typing tests. Let \(Y_{ij}\) be the time it takes friend \(j\) to complete test \(i\).

- In modeling \(Y_{ij}\), explain why it’s important to account for the grouping structure introduced by observing each friend multiple times.
- Suppose we were to model the outcomes \(Y_{ij}\) by (16.5). Interpret the meaning of all model coefficients in terms of what they might illuminate about typing speeds: \((\mu_j,\mu,\sigma_y,\sigma_\mu)\).

**Exercise 16.4 (Speed typing: sketch the data)**In the spirit of Figure 16.8, sketch what density plots of your four friends’ typing speed outcomes \(Y_{ij}\) might look like under each scenario below.

- The overall results of the 20 timed tests are remarkably similar among the four friends.
- Each person is quite consistent in their typing times, but there are big differences from person to person – some tend to type much faster than others.
- Within the subjects, there doesn’t appear to be much correlation in typing time from test to test.

**Exercise 16.5 (Speed typing: connecting to the model)**For each scenario in the above exercise, indicate the corresponding relationship between \(\sigma_y\) and \(\sigma_\mu\): \(\sigma_y < \sigma_\mu\), \(\sigma_y \approx \sigma_\mu\), or \(\sigma_y > \sigma_\mu\).

### 16.9.2 Applied Exercises

**Exercise 16.6 (Big Words: Getting to know the data)**Recall from Section 16.7 the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) study into the effectiveness of a digital vocabulary learning program, the

*Big Word Club*(BWC) (Kalil, Mayer, and Oreopoulos 2020). In our analysis of this program, we’ll utilize weakly informative priors with a baseline understanding that the average student saw 0 change in their vocabulary scores throughout the program. We’ll balance these priors by the

`big_word_club`

data in the **bayesrules**package. For each student participant,

`big_word_club`

includes a `school_id`

and the *percentage change*in vocabulary scores over the course of the study period (

`score_pct_change`

). We keep only the students that participated in the BWC program (`treat == 1`

), thus eliminate the control group.
```
data("big_word_club")
<- big_word_club %>%
big_word_club filter(treat == 1) %>%
select(school_id, score_pct_change) %>%
na.omit()
```

- How many schools participated in the
*Big Word Club*? - What’s the range in the number of student participants per school?
- On average, at which school did students exhibit the greatest improvement in vocabulary? The least?
- Construct and discuss a plot which illustrates the variability in
`score_pct_change`

within and between schools.

**Exercise 16.7 (Big Words: Setting up the model)**In the next exercises you will explore a hierarchical one-way ANOVA model (16.12) of \(Y_{ij}\), the percentage change in vocabulary scores, for student \(i\) in school \(j\).

- Why is a hierarchical model, vs a complete or no pooled model, appropriate in our analysis of the BWC program?
- Compare and contrast the meanings of model parameters \(\mu\) and \(\mu_j\) in the context of this vocabulary study.
- Compare and contrast the meanings of model parameters \(\sigma_y\) and \(\sigma_\mu\) in the context of this vocabulary study.

**Exercise 16.8 (Big Words: Simulating the model)**

- Simulate the hierarchical posterior model of parameters (\(\mu_j,\mu,\sigma_y,\sigma_\mu\)) using 4 chains, each of length 10000.
- Construct and discuss Markov chain trace, density, and autocorrelation plots.
- Construct and discuss a
`pp_check()`

of the chain output.

**Exercise 16.9 (Big Words: Global parameters)**In this exercise, we’ll explore the global parameters of our BWC model: (\(\mu,\sigma_y,\sigma_\mu\)).

- Construct and interpret a 95% credible interval for \(\mu\).
- Is there ample evidence that, on average, student vocabulary levels improve throughout the vocabulary program? Explain.
- Which appears to be larger: the variability in vocabulary performance
*between*or*within*schools? Provide posterior evidence and explain the implication of this result in the context of the analysis.

**Exercise 16.10 (Big Words: Focusing on schools)**Next, let’s dig into the school-specific means, \(\mu_j\).

- Construct and discuss a plot of the 80% posterior credible intervals for the average percent change in vocabulary score for all schools in the study, \(\mu_j\).
- Construct and interpret 80% posterior credible interval for \(\mu_{10}\).
- Is there ample evidence that, on average, vocabulary scores at School 10 improved by more than 5% throughout the duration of the vocabulary program? Provide posterior evidence.

**Exercise 16.11 (Big Words: Predicting vocab levels)**Suppose we

*continue*the vocabulary study at each of Schools 6 and 17 (which participated in the current study) and Bayes Prep, a school which is new to the study. In this exercise you’ll make predictions about \(Y_{\text{new},j}\), the vocabulary performance of a student that’s

*new*to the study from each of these three schools \(j\).

*Without*using the`posterior_predict()`

shortcut function, simulate posterior predictive models of \(Y_{\text{new},j}\) for School 6 and Bayes Prep. Display the first 6 posterior predictions for both schools.- Using your simulations from part (a), construct, interpret, and compare 80% posterior predictive intervals of \(Y_{\text{new},j}\) for School 6 and Bayes Prep.
- Using
`posterior_predict()`

this time, simulate posterior predictive models of \(Y_{\text{new},j}\) for each of School 6, School 17, and Bayes Prep. Illustrate your simulation results using`mcmc_areas()`

and discuss your findings. - Finally, construct, plot, and discuss 80% posterior prediction intervals for all schools in the original study.

**Exercise 16.12 (Big Words: Shrinkage)**Re-examine the posterior predictive plots from Exercise 16.11. Would you say that there is a little or a lot of shrinkage in this analysis? Provide evidence and explain why you think this is the case.

**Exercise 16.13 (Open exercise: Voices)**The

`voices`

data in the **bayesrules**package contains the results of an experiment in which subjects participated in role-playing dialog under various conditions. Of interest to the researchers was the subjects’ voice pitches (in Hz). In this open-ended exercise, complete a hierarchical analysis of voice pitch, without any predictors.

### References

*Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [Distributor]*. https://doi.org/10.3886/E117330V1.

*Pop Culture Data Science*. https://www.kaylinpavlik.com/classifying-songs-genres/.

*TidyTuesday Github Repostitory*. https://github.com/rfordatascience/tidytuesday/blob/master/data/2020/2020-01-21/readme.md.

*Forcats: Tools for Working with Categorical Variables (Factors)*. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=forcats.

To focus on the new methodology, we analyze a tiny fraction of the nearly 33,000 songs analyzed by Pavlik. We COULD but won’t analyze all 33,000 songs.↩︎

Answer: The posterior predictive median will be around 58.39 for each artist.↩︎

To make the connection to the no pooled model, let predictor \(X_{ij}\) be 1 for artist \(j\) and 0 otherwise. Then

`spotify_no_pooled`

models the mean in popularity \(Y_{ij}\), for song \(i\) by artist \(j\), by \(\mu_1 X_{i1} + \mu_2 X_{i2} + \cdots + \mu_{44}X_{i,44} = \mu_j\), the mean popularity for artist \(j\).↩︎Answer: a) Roughly 13; b) Roughly 70; c) NA. The no pooled model can’t be used to predict the popularity of a Mohsen Beats song, since Mohsen Beats does not have any songs included in this sample.↩︎

This is not a typo. The default output gives us information about the

*standard deviation*within artists (\(\sigma_y\)) but the*variance*between artists (\(\sigma_\mu^2\)).↩︎Answer: Lil Skies has a much smaller sample size.↩︎